Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 90% NO. Momentum is rising. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$809.09 (+809%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability11.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Rising24h Price Change: +4.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: AInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +4.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Rising
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 10.7% from 6.0% baseline — 79% shift
- Volume spike: Volume spiked 30% in 2h — unusual activity
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$557K
Liquidity$159K
Current Probability11%
Resolves in7d
Active tradingVol: 23.4% → 11.5%
7d to resolution. Active trading window — peak volatility expected.
Momentum building — watch for breakout signals
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AI Brief
Kharg Island capture by April 15 is priced as extremely unlikely at 7%, with resolution just 9 days away and no active military campaign publicly signaling imminent Iranian territorial loss. The low liquidity ($272K) and brief resolution window indicate this is a tail-risk speculation reflecting broader Middle East conflict narratives rather than concrete intelligence.
Anomalies
CriticalPricez=7.2
CriticalVolz=5