Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 35% YES. Informed flow observed. Resolves in 5 days.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$185.71 (+186%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability35.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: FlatVolume trend: coolingLiquidity: AInformed flowMature market (257d)
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$179K
Liquidity$318K
Current Probability35%
Resolves in4d
Active tradingVol: 1.6% → 2.7%
4d to resolution. Active trading window — peak volatility expected.
Momentum building — watch for breakout signals
Related Markets5
AI Brief
Orbán holds 34% odds to remain or return as PM, down from his 16-year incumbent grip. The tight April 12 deadline and rival Magyar's 66% odds suggest a genuine two-horse race where markets see Magyar as the likely successor. Orbán's domestic and EU political challenges have eroded his baseline support.