Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (95% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1900.00 (+1900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability5.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.4%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.4pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$196
Liquidity$8K
Current Probability5%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 7.9% → 4.0%
267 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
This outcome carries just a 4% probability, with traders seeing less than a 1% chance the Fed cuts to 0.25% or lower before year-end 2027. Such a low bound would signal either prolonged disinflation or a major recession requiring an aggressive easing cycle. Current inflation levels and Fed communications make this outcome highly unlikely without a major economic shock.