About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 54% YES. Momentum is falling. Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$85.19 (+85%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability54.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -3.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice stable for 117 days
- Price dropped -3.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: rising
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$13K
Liquidity$18K
Current Probability54%
Resolves in21mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.9% → 2.1%
632 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
Related Markets6
AI Brief
Traders are split almost evenly on the $2T threshold at 54% YES, indicating this level is seen as realistic but not assured for the IPO. The tight 21-point spread between $1T (94%) and $2T (57%) suggests most conviction sits in the $1.5T-$2T range. Watch macro conditions and Starship test flights as catalysts through 2026.