Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?

The 3.25% upper bound for year-end carries only 12% YES odds, suggesting traders expect either deeper Fed cuts (pushing below 3.25%) or less likely, further hikes above that level. With eight months until the December 9 expiry, upcoming CPI prints and Fed communications in May-June will be critical drivers of where the terminal rate lands. Low volume and tight odds reflect modest conviction—this is a precise rate-target bet rather than a directional inflation/recession call.