Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -0.1%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: CInformed flowPrice stable for 86 days
- Price moved -0.1pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$130
Liquidity$12K
Current Probability2%
Resolves in8mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.1% → 1.7%
245 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets14
AI Brief
The market prices near-zero odds (2%) on the Fed cutting to 1.0% or below by 2026-year-end, suggesting traders expect rates to stay elevated or decline only modestly despite economic uncertainty. Catalysts ahead include Fed decisions and monthly inflation/employment reports that will shape easing expectations.