US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 55% YES. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$81.82 (+82%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability55.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -2.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice stable for 36 days
- Price dropped -2.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$248K
Liquidity$163K
Current Probability55%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 2.4% → 1.9%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
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AI Brief
The June 30 ceasefire deadline shows slightly higher confidence at 55% YES, reflecting more realistic timelines for negotiation compared to the May 31 variant. Both Iran markets have moved 5% higher in tandem, suggesting traders are pricing in a modest shift toward diplomatic resolution over the past day. The longer 2-month window absorbs potential near-term friction while maintaining dialogue paths.