Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Slight YES lean at 62%.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$61.29 (+61%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability62.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +1.0%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: BMixed flowPrice stable for 36 days
- Price moved +1.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Mixed capital flow
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$45K
Liquidity$171K
Current Probability62%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 1.4% → 1.5%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and steady.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Market consensus is 62% probability of conflict resolution by June 30, representing strongest confidence among the three Iran conflict resolution dates; 8+ weeks allows room for negotiation, ceasefire frameworks, or exhaustion of immediate escalation cycles.