About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
Market leans NO at 80% NO. Momentum is strong up. Informed flow observed.
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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
- Price jumped +11.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
Iran's supreme leadership change before end of April looks highly unlikely at 13%, down 9% over the past day as the near-term window closes without major succession signals. Key catalyst is April 30 deadline with only weeks remaining for any structural political shift. Market pricing reflects consensus that leadership continuity is highly likely despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
