About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 80% NO. Momentum is strong up. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$376.19 (+376%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability21.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +11.0%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +11.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: rising
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$257K
Liquidity$48K
Current Probability21%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 34.2% → 14.6%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
Related Markets3
AI Brief
Iran's supreme leadership change before end of April looks highly unlikely at 13%, down 9% over the past day as the near-term window closes without major succession signals. Key catalyst is April 30 deadline with only weeks remaining for any structural political shift. Market pricing reflects consensus that leadership continuity is highly likely despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.