US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

US-Iran tensions dominate near-term geopolitical risk, with markets pricing only an 18% chance of a ceasefire by April 15 despite a +10% rally in 24h volume ($2.4M). The tight deadline leaves minimal room for diplomatic resolution, with negotiations likely extending into late April when the 16% YES odds reflect marginally better odds for a broader settlement window. The April 30 ceasefire deadline captures similar US-Iran tensions but at higher probability (16% YES), suggesting markets expect either negotiation progress or escalation clarity by month-end. Volume remains strong ($1.4M 24h) despite lower odds than the April 15 contract. Klára Dobrev has zero market odds of becoming Hungary's next Prime Minister, with only days until the April 12 resolution—markets are essentially ruling out any near-term leadership change or unexpected political upset in the Hungarian government. Mark Kelly's 2028 Democratic nomination odds sit at a negligible 2%, reflecting long-shot status in a crowded primary field over two years away; limited liquidity suggests low trader conviction on either side of this contract. Military support for Iran's opposition by April 30 trades at 16% YES with thin liquidity ($18K), indicating minimal trader interest in this narrower escalation scenario compared to broader ceasefire discussions. US military support for Kurds in Iran faces even lower odds (16% YES) and thinner liquidity, with a -3.7% 24h decline signaling fading conviction in this specific intervention pathway over the next three weeks. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election are priced at just 16% YES, with low volume reflecting his status as a fringe candidate in a field led by traditional political forces. Markets assign only 4% odds to Jeffrey Epstein being confirmed alive before 2027, pricing this conspiracy theory as nearly impossible despite minimal activity in this low-liquidity ($130K) contract. Elon Musk posting exactly 80-99 tweets during April 7-14 has crashed to 16% YES probability, suggesting either the range is too narrow for his typical posting frequency or traders view the market as mispriced relative to historical tweet counts.