Election prediction markets on Polymarket aggregate real-time forecasts on political outcomes, from presidential races to policy decisions. These markets reflect collective probability estimates as new information emerges—from polling data to campaign developments to major political events. Markets in this category cover US electoral cycles, including races for president, Congress, and state offices, as well as predictions about individual political figures and their career trajectories. You'll find questions about whether specific candidates will seek office, achieve nomination, or win election to various positions. Several factors drive price movements in election markets: polling trends and survey results, campaign announcements and media coverage, economic conditions affecting voter sentiment, primary election outcomes, and significant news developments. As real-world events unfold, prices adjust to reflect updated probability estimates. Election markets serve as transparent forecasting tools, useful for political analysis, understanding how markets assess outcomes, and comparing different probability estimates. Prices update continuously as traders incorporate new information, providing real-time indicators separate from traditional polling or political commentary. Browse the markets below to explore current forecasts on election outcomes, compare probability estimates across different scenarios, and track how market probabilities evolve as campaigns progress.