Primaries Prediction Markets on Polymarket aggregate real-time forecasts for 2028 nomination races across both major political parties. This collection includes markets on whether specific candidates—from established politicians to public figures—will secure their party's presidential nomination. Participants in primary markets are forecasting the outcomes of early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, state-by-state delegate accumulation, and eventual convention results. Each market reflects crowd estimates of a candidate's path to the nomination, incorporating multiple signals of electoral strength. **What Factors Drive Primary Odds?** Primary market prices move in response to several key indicators: - **Polling trends**: Early Iowa and New Hampshire surveys, plus national primary preference tracking - **Endorsements**: Support from party leaders, prominent figures, and organized groups - **Fundraising**: Campaign resources, small-donor enthusiasm, and financial capacity - **Media coverage**: News attention and narrative shifts about candidate viability - **Debate performance**: Public perception of candidate communication and debate stage presence - **Campaign activity**: Ground operations, voter contact, and organizational strength - **Historical performance**: Prior election results and candidate track records - **Party dynamics**: Shifts in party composition and primary rules Primary markets serve as a continuous forecast tool for those following the 2028 cycle. The odds aggregate millions of individual predictions into a single probability, updating as new information emerges. Whether you're tracking candidate momentum, understanding delegate math, or monitoring the evolution of the primary calendar, these markets provide real-time insights into the nomination race.