Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?

This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will keep the upper bound of its target rate at 3.5% through year-end 2026, with traders 77% confident the rate will move away from this level by then. The sharp 2.5% price decline in 24 hours reflects growing conviction for rate cuts, likely driven by softer economic data signaling the Fed will need to ease policy before year-end. The nearest catalyst is Fed communications and monthly inflation and employment reports that indicate the Fed's likely policy trajectory through 2026.