Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (98% NO). Large trader flow is active. Resolves in under 24 hours.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$4900.00 (+4900%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability2.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.8%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price moved +0.8pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 1.9% from 0.9% baseline — 106% shift
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$617K
Liquidity$54K
Current Probability2%
Resolves inEnded
No end dateVol: 43.4% → 19.5%
No resolution date. Volatility follows news flow.
News-driven — enter on signal, size down for uncertainty
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AI Brief
A ceasefire between Iran, Israel, and the US by April 7 is priced at just 2%, reflecting market skepticism with only one day until expiry. This is an immediate binary outcome that's already resolving or has just resolved, making it more of a news-driven settlement event than a tradeable thesis. Ongoing escalation rhetoric keeps the tiny 2% bid from collapsing to zero.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=2.9