Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market leans NO at 80% NO. Momentum is falling. Informed flow observed. Resolves in 5 days.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$400.00 (+400%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability20.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Falling24h Price Change: -6.6%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price dropped -6.6pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Falling
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved down to 19.6% from 25.7% baseline — 24% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$79K
Liquidity$45K
Current Probability20%
Resolves in4d
Active tradingVol: 10.2% → 6.2%
4d to resolution. Active trading window — peak volatility expected.
Momentum building — watch for breakout signals
Related Markets14
AI Brief
Carlos Álvarez holds 26% odds to win the April 12 Peruvian election, making him the strongest candidate in the current market pricing among tracked individuals. His odds also declined 4% in 24 hours, reflecting the same risk-off sentiment across Peru's race. The election happens in six days, with live polling and early votes potentially shifting probabilities sharply.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3